eMarketer predicts, US retailers will have increased digital ad budgets by 15.7% to $9.50 billion, following growth of 14.5% last year.
Much of that spending can be expected to focus on drawing holiday shoppers, as the last months of the year account for a disproportionate share of retail revenues. eMarketer predicts 23.5% of all US retail ecommerce sales this year, for example, will take place in November and December, amounting to $61.8 billion. eMarketer estimates US retail ecommerce sales will grow 16.4% to $262.3 billion this year.
Retailers already spend more than any other vertical industry on digital advertising, and this year’s increases are expected to give the industry a 22.3% share of total US digital ad spending—identical to last year’s share. This figure is expected to fall slightly in coming years as the overall market grows slightly faster than retail.
Research suggests much of the incremental digital ad growth coming from retailers is going toward mobile advertising, particularly search, as well as select mobile display venues with large audiences and strong targeting, like Facebook and Twitter.
eMarketer bases all of our forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends as well as trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
Additionally, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all our forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.